Lebanonwire, April 17, 2003

The Daily Star

Zeina Abu Rizk
Special to The Daily Star
 
The Cabinet reshuffle has followed a familiar political pattern in Lebanon, with the change coming as a result of tension between top Lebanese leaders reaching an unacceptable level for Damascus.
Intensified contacts to form the new government ­ the last under President Emile Lahoud’s presidential term ­ started Saturday among the various poles of power, as well as with Syrian officials.
Political sources familiar with the issue said Lahoud had in mind Tripoli MP and former Premier Omar Karami for the top post, but his plans did not gain the support of the Syrian leadership, which insisted on maintaining Hariri in office. In return, Lahoud was given the “green light” to undertake the kind of changes he wants to see in the new government.
According to political sources, Karami, who had recently nourished high hopes of being the next premier, was greatly disappointed. This frustration reportedly led him to abstain from voting for a prime minister during the Wednesday parliamentary consultation with the president, which started early on Wednesday in Baabda.
Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was reportedly opposed to a government change, but had to go along with the process in line with Syrian recommendations. The premier’s reluctance was said to be reinforced by a Syrian recommendation to include some Sunni names on the list of future ministers. Among those is that of former Beirut MP Tammam Salam, one of Hariri’s main political rivals. But parliamentary sources said Wednesday evening that Salam’s name may have been removed from the list of potential Cabinet members, in a bid to avoid upsetting the premier.  
Speaker Nabih Berri appears to be the main beneficiary of the reshuffle, for which he has been fighting for several months. Berri had refused a partial reshuffling of his ministers alone. His persistence on a complete change and the pressure and efforts he deployed toward this end were finally rewarded.
Lately, the speaker did not hide his intentions to hold the outgoing government accountable for what he considers an evident lack of performance, having promised in particular to hold a series of sessions in Parliament to question the government. The speaker’s intentions were going to render life difficult for Hariri’s Cabinet, which would add to an already tense political atmosphere.
According to government sources, this is exactly the kind of situation that Damascus wants to avoid. The decision to undertake a government change was in no way related to the regional context, neither was it a Syrian wish in the first place. The decision, said the sources, was taken to avoid internal clashes that could have easily erupted given current domestic disputes.
For Damascus, whose main concerns lie in having to deal with intensifying US threats and accusations, the idea was to have senior political players agree on whether to undertake a government change. If such a change were decided, the condition for Syrian support was to have key leaders agree beforehand on the new government’s formula, allowing the change to be completed smoothly and rapidly. This may explain the rush by senior leaders to complete the necessary constitutional procedures.
Speculation has mounted over the past 24 hours that Syria is trying to establish a government that would best fit the precarious regional situation. For this purpose, improving Christian representation in particular, appears important as it increases the credibility of local authorities in the eyes of a skeptical West and reinforces Lebanese unity.
But the course of events on Wednesday did not appear to match these assumptions. Until late Wednesday evening, a scenario in which the Qornet Shehwan Gathering of Christian opposition leaders would be represented in the new government was not confirmed, and was even depicted as unlikely by a number of politicians. Batroun MP Butros Harb, a member of Qornet Shehwan, was described as a serious candidate for the new government. But these rumors were later ruled out in a number of political circles, especially after Harb, like most Qornet Shehwan MPs, abstained from choosing a prime minister during the Baabda consultations.  
Information also spread that Baabda MP Salah Honein, a member of Qornet Shehwan and Chouf MP Walid Jumblatt’s parliamentary bloc, had a better chance than Harb to be nominated as a Maronite minister. Through Honein’s appointment, the Qornet Shewan Gathering would be “symbolically” represented, but the MP would be representing Jumblatt, not the opposition.  
Until Wednesday evening, Hizbullah participation in the new Cabinet remained unlikely. Political players, and behind them Damascus, may have judged the time inappropriate for bringing Hizbullah members into the Cabinet for the first time, taking into account the tense regional situation and the harsh opposition that part of the international community has to the party.

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