Zeina Abu Rizk
Daily Star staff

The political battle that erupted during the Metn by-election has consolidated the presence and role of the moderate Christian opposition, making it responsible toward all those who supported it on June 2 and reaffirming a reality that the authorities will find difficult to ignore.
Opposition leaders seem determined to exploit their victory and proceed with plans that go beyond seeing Gabriel Murr installed as an MP.
Among the moderate opposition’s objectives is to be recognized for its true political weight. A leading figure in this opposition coalition told The Daily Star that the “political equation of power should be amended in accordance with reality on the ground, not with the authorities’ wishes.”
Another goal, the opposition figure added, is “to convince extremist opponents to participate in political life on the basis of the moderate opposition’s conditions, not those of the authorities, and under the state’s ceiling, in line with the principle of dialogue between the opposition and the authorities.”
The next necessary step, according to opposition leaders, is to see the authorities indicate willingness to engage in dialogue to demonstrate their readiness to address various signs of dissatisfaction that have surfaced over the past year.
Opposition figures like former President Amin Gemayel remarked that while Damascus has recently reacted positively to these signals, Lebanon’s political authorities have so far failed to offer similar positive signs.
Despite the divisions that surfaced in the opposition’s ranks prior to the Metn poll, opposition leaders agree that the surprise victory by Gabriel Murr has reunited them because it was a triumph for all of them and more generally for the state.
Gemayel, who is a member of the Qornet Shehwan Gathering, said the Metn campaign produced a three-tiered opposition, with the first tier occupied by those who originally decided to back Murr. Gemayel named Metn MP Nassib Lahoud, his son and Metn MP Pierre Gemayel, and himself as members of this group. Other politicians from the Qornet Shehwan Gathering later joined this first group, Gemayel added, citing in particular former Ambassador Simon Karam, Samir Franjieh, Jbeil MP Fares Soueid and Kesrouan MP Mansour Bone.
The second tier, the former president said, includes those who joined the Murr campaign afterward, such as National Liberal Party (NLP) president Dory Chamoun and former Communist Party leader George Hawi, as well as other Qornet Shehwan Gathering members and political forces in the Metn.
The third tier, he added, consists of all those who took part in the meeting last week at NLP headquarters, when the debacle over a delay in tabulating and announcing the election results dragged on. Backers of another opposition candidate, Ghassan Mokheiber, took part in this meeting.
Gemayel said former Army
Commander Michel Aoun could be considered part of the first tier, since he promised to back Murr from the beginning.
However, Aoun’s uncompromising stance on the Taif Accord left him outside the core opposition group, Gemayel continued.
Evaluating the Metn election, Gemayel said the opposition’s victory was “a triumph for everyone who seeks change,” including regime pillars like Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt. Gemayel said he hoped to see the authorities read the results “positively,” and “open up to the opposition.”
Otherwise, he said, the authorities would be denying a political reality, forcing them to resort once again to repressive measures to contain it.
Some political “signals” that surfaced during the elections could no longer be ignored, said Gemayel. Among these signals, he said, was that the election battle saw the opposition gain hundreds and even thousands of voices against the authorities, dismissing the reading of a race decided by only of a handful of votes. The former president hinted at infractions that reportedly led to inaccurate results.
Gemayel added that in recent months, and following the by-election, the opposition was “able to impose itself as an interlocutor with the authorities.”
Gemayel said the balance of power had not actually changed, since opposition forces have always been present, such as on Aug. 7 of last year, during a police crackdown on pro-sovereignty activists. The opposition also surfaced during Gemayel’s return to Lebanon in 2000 and during the election of his son as a Metn MP that same year. The opposition made its presence known in March 2001, during a mass welcome of the Maronite patriarch after a tour of the United States, he continued.
Damascus, he said, has proven wiser than local authorities in its assessment of regional developments and the impact of local events on the regional situation.
“Syrian leaders have given positive signals … by focusing in particular on the image of moderate Christians” when referring to Metn-based opposition forces, he said. This reaction reflects “a desire to absorb all forces, whether opposition or loyalist, since chaos can only lead to problems for the Syrian regime.”
The former president cautioned that true dialogue has yet to take place, despite pronouncements to the contrary.
“So far, dialogues have only consisted of monologues” between various parties, Gemayel said.

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