| Double loss: security and economic confidence Three main stories are the focus of the days Israeli press:
the thwarted dirty bomb attack in the United States, Israels money
market crisis, and Mondays White House meeting between US President George W. Bush
and Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
In a front-page headline, Maariv quotes Bush as saying: Conditions are not yet ripe
for a peace conference. It says Sharon told the president that Israel would only
renew peace talks with the Palestinians when terror, violence and incitement stop.
Yediot Ahronot reports an understanding between Bush and Sharon that there is
no chance of progress with Palestinian President Yasser Arafat at the helm.
In a front-page commentary, Yediot Ahronot diplomatic analyst Nahum Barnea says: On
the surface, Sharons meeting with Bush was highly successful. The president publicly
espoused most of Sharons demands of the Palestinian Authority (PA), and relieved the
Israeli government of the need to contend with a political process in the near future.
Bush did not give the Arab countries, like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, anything to hold on
to.
But then, Barnea wonders: Why was the senior official in the prime ministers
entourage, who briefed Israeli journalists on Monday night, so prickly and
concerned?
He surmises that perhaps it was because the White House spokesman softened much of what
the president said.
The president spoke of profound reforms, tantamount to the creation of a new PA
before entering peace negotiations, and the spokesman corrected this to: Reforms and
a political horizon in tandem. The president did not exclude the possibility of
expelling Arafat and his spokesman corrected this to: Expelling Arafat would not be
useful.
Barnea says it is hard to tell from the senior official in Sharons entourage if the
meeting will lead to curtailment of Arafats rule.
On one hand, everything suggests that Israel will not negotiate with Arafat, at
least as long as Sharon is prime minister; on the other hand, Israels stated
conditions for talks do not necessitate his expulsion. In practical terms, however, now
that Bush has finished consulting with the leaders of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and
Israel, it seems that the chances of renewing the peace process are worse than they were
when he started.
On Maarivs opinion page, Dan Margalit says the 35th anniversary of the 1967 war is a
reminder of how the outcome of the war is still central to todays reality. At the
end of that war, he says, Israel declared that it was holding the territories it had
conquered as a deposit with which to negotiate peace. This made peace with
Egypt possible and also set Arafat on the path of compromise. But tragically, over the
years Israel began to do itself harm by instituting permanent occupation and rule over
another nation.
And theres the catch, writes Margalit. There can be no political
settlement without holding much of the territory as a deposit, but by transforming that
hold from a temporary and conditional one into a permanent occupation, Israel has made the
chances for peace remote.
In a comment in Yediot Ahronot, strategist Meir Stieglitz says that dirty bomb
terror is more a matter of spreading horror, anxiety and hysteria even without an
actual attack taking place than of actual damage and casualties.
The world must be on the alert, he writes, but the world is full of real
dangers, and there is no need to add a false one to the list.
Stieglitz says Israel, because of its area, penetrability and population density, is the
ideal target for this type of terror. As long as Israel is engaged in a bitter
conflict with its neighbors, they will use terror of all varieties to try to balance our
vast military advantage. And, if you really need to be frightened about all this, then the
biological variety is far more scary, is his macabre consolation.
Maarivs editorial also discusses the dirty bomb threat in terms of the
terror spread by the very idea of radiation, and warns that if the US has become a
target, then Israel cannot be far behind. After (Sept. 11), the terrorists here set their
sights on the Azrieli Towers in Tel Aviv. And the suicide blast at the Park Hotel in
Netanya was supposed to scatter cyanide, although this idea was dropped for technical
reasons.
Avoiding mass panic of another kind crops up in Yediot Ahronots leader, where
economics editor Sever Plotzker says that this weeks 1.5 percent interest rate hike
by the central bank was the first significant sign of the economy moving onto a war
footing.
At least since the Passover Eve attack on the Park Hotel, which was the pretext for
the launch of Operation Rampart, we have actually been subjected to the
economics of war something that the public has grasped and fears very deeply. Not so
our economic leadership, which has kept up the pretense of business as usual
with its feeble attempts to cut the budget, the subsequent fake crisis in the Cabinet and
the petty bickering between the central bank and the Finance Ministry. The Knesset may
have passed the emergency economic plan, but no serious attempt has been made
to shape measures appropriate to a state of war.
Plotzker says: Yesterdays events are an excellent illustration of the meaning
of a war economy. Israelis woke up to two separate realities. The basic
interest rate had been increased by 1.5 percent, and the (Israeli Army) had once again
occupied the capital of the PA, Ramallah. On the scales of the money markets, the higher
cost of shekel credit was weighed against the deteriorating security situation.
Predictably, the impact of the war was greater than that of the interest rate. The sight
of Israeli tanks around the Mukataa, Arafats headquarters, tipped the scales in
favor of the dollar.
Plotzker calls for the establishment of an emergency Economic Cabinet to set a
strategy for stopping the fall of the shekel beyond the five-to-a-dollar
point, clamping a lid on the government deficit and blocking the rise in the unemployment
rate.
The one-word headline on Maarivs front-page commentary is simply Scary,
and most readers would assume it dealt with the dirty bomb panic.
But it is by economic
analyst Moshe Pearl, and what he finds frightening
is the simple fact that Israelis have now lost confidence in their economy, just as
since the outbreak of the intifada in October 2000 we have lost our sense of personal
security.
Pearl says that the only person who can do anything about restoring economic confidence is
Sharon.
After he saw how the public reacted to his determination to get his emergency
economic program through, Sharon must appreciate the tremendous craving for economic
leadership, Pearl writes. The vast majority backed that inferior program, only
because the prime minister projected a message of I am here, I am taking over, and I
wont cross any red lines.
But that has turned out to be woefully inadequate, Pearl says, and if Sharon does
not grasp that the loss of economic confidence is as strategically significant as the loss
of the sense of personal security, and requires the same degree of serious attention, he
will soon discover that it is too late to repair what still can be repaired.
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