‘There wouldn’t be a bridge left standing,’ official says of Israeli retaliation

Nicholas Blanford
Daily Star staff

The sounds of construction emanating from both sides of the Shebaa Farms front line over the past week signal that Hizbullah and the Israeli Army are preparing for further fighting, which diplomats believe will lead to an imminent final showdown between the two foes.

The Israeli Army has spent the last week shoring up the defenses of the Jabal Summaqa and Rowsat Allam outposts on the skyline above Kfar Shuba. The sounds of drilling and hammering were clearly audible Thursday from the Lebanese side of the United Nations-delineated Blue Line, although the construction activity is on the other side of the Kfar Shuba heights and out of sight. The building work appears to contradict speculation in the past two weeks that the Israelis are planning to withdraw soon from the occupied farms.

Hizbullah, too, has been busy in the front-line area. Residents of villages near the Shebaa Farms have been kept awake at night over the past week by explosions. Hizbullah has been using dynamite to construct a new position in a wadi.

The wadi is one of several Hizbullah no-go zones in the South. It is no coincidence that the only two places where international de-mining teams have been unable to check for land mines are in, or close, to Hizbullah strongholds.

Hizbullah’s vigilance in these sensitive locations is total, as a group of hunters from Beit Lif village discovered last month. The hunters were blocked by Hizbullah fighters from entering a wadi near the village. The hunters ­ members of the Amal Movement ­ took umbrage at being told where they could or could not go by members of a rival group. A gunfight broke out and at least five people were wounded.

Hizbullah personnel manning front-line positions in the South exhibit high morale and a sense of purpose in carrying out their duties. Like their Israeli opponents, they believe that a renewed conflict with the Israeli Army will occur sooner or later and they are prepared for it. Hizbullah officials repeatedly say that the party is ready for all eventualities.

Nonetheless, Hizbullah insiders stress the “wisdom” of the party leadership.

Hizbullah is working according to a well thought-out plan and will not undertake a course of action which could jeopardize its position in Lebanon, they say.

While diplomatic and security sources are united in believing that Israel and Hizbullah are set for a serious clash, there are differences in how it will occur.
Some argue Israel will react if there is another kidnapping of Israeli soldiers or a serious cross-border attack resulting in civilian casualties. In this scenario, Israel would use air power to smash Lebanon’s infrastructure.

“There wouldn’t be a bridge left standing,” a European military diplomat said.
The purpose of such an operation would be to provoke the Lebanese into blaming Hizbullah for the strikes, thus wiping out the party’s domestic support and neutralizing its ability to keep operating along the border.

A senior Israeli officer was quoted in the Israeli Haaretz daily this week as saying that an assault on Hizbullah would involve ground forces to dismantle the party’s positions along the border.

The “infrastructure” option is one of several that the Israeli Army has delivered to the Israeli Cabinet for appraisal.

Hizbullah’s response would likely be devastating in comparison to past rocket attacks on northern Israel. If Hizbullah really does possess long-range rockets, as the Israelis have repeatedly maintained, then Haifa, 40 kilometers south of the border and home to Israel’s largest industrial complex, will come under fire for the first time. Some 15 percent of Israel’s population would be within range of Hizbullah’s rockets.

Some diplomats argue that Israel would tolerate the rockets if the military operation led to the undoing of Hizbullah.

The second scenario suggests that Israel will bide its time until after Washington has dealt with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in the expectation ­ or knowledge ­ that Hizbullah will be the target of phase three in America’s “war on terrorism.” US officials have classified Hizbullah as second only to the Al-Qaeda network of Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden on their hit list.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon gave credence to the second scenario this week when he told his Security Cabinet that Israel has no interest in opening a new front along the country’s border with Lebanon. Attacks on Israeli outposts in the Shebaa Farms and even escalations similar to the two-week flare-up in April can be tolerated so long as casualties remain a minimum.

“It’s not a big deal that Hizbullah remains a threat along the border with flare-ups every few months,” an international security source said, “as long as they’re careful, as they usually are, to keep casualties to a minimum.”

Copyright © The Daily Star