Speculation centers on behind-the-scenes negotiations and Syrian mediation in
settling outcome in favor of Gabriel Murr

Zeina Abu Rizk
Daily Star staff

Lebanese leaders, possibly with help from Damascus, appear to have weathered the political storm of the Metn by-election after conducting extensive negotiations to avoid a nasty conflagration.
But official sources, including Interior Minister Elias Murr, asserted that the final announcement of Gabriel Murr’s victory over Myrna Murr in the Sunday vote for the Orthodox parliamentary seat was not the outcome of mediation efforts, nor a compromise between the loyalists and opposition camps.
An official source remarked that had it not been for the technical mistake found in polling station 271 in the village of Qaaqour ­ where votes were counted twice ­ nothing would have convinced the authorities to modify the final results, initially in favor of Myrna Murr, to Gabriel Murr’s advantage.
But other sources familiar with the issue said Syrian intervention over the past 24 hours brought the political crisis to an early close.
The sources did not reveal any details of the Syrian efforts, but Damascus may have decided to intervene to avoid a further political deterioration, especially as Syrian officials do not believe that the loss or gain of the Metn seat would have any repercussions on the overall political setting.
Senior Lebanese leaders were also presumably involved in the mediation, aimed in particular at sparing the country political unrest, preserving the country’s democratic image and keeping the president at a safe distance from the political struggle.
While the announcement
of Myrna Murr’s victory seemed imminent on Monday, the political climate changed drastically Tuesday morning ­ most likely as the result of confidential contacts.
A meeting took place in Nijmeh Square on Tuesday between Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which was placed in the context of these presumed contacts. But sources close to the speaker denied these speculations, saying that neither man was mediating over the electoral struggle.
Significantly, the various political sides involved in the Metn by-election, including the opposition, asserted Tuesday that the president was not a target in the electoral battle.
Chouf MP Walid Jumblatt’s statement on Tuesday morning was significant, particularly given the Druze leader’s recent rapprochement with Syria.
His comments appeared to carry several political messages and were possibly instigated
by Damascus.
Early on Tuesday, Jumblatt urged the president and the authorities to announce Gabriel Murr’s victory, but insisted that he would not be used as a tool to attack the president, the authorities or Syria. This balancing act appeared consistent with presumed efforts to keep these forces, in particular the president, at a distance.
In general, the formula according to which the suspense was ended seemed to reflect the authorities’ refusal to bow to pressure from the opposition to announce Gabriel Murr’s victory at a time when the final results were neither final nor confirmed.
In terms of legislative power, the authorities did not lose a parliamentary seat, since the seat was previously occupied by an opposition stalwart, the late Albert Mokheiber.
Yet the opposition undoubtedly scored a major political victory by defeating one of the pillars of the presidential mandate and proving wrong Metn MP Michel Murr’s prediction that his daughter would triumph easily in Sunday’s poll.
Yet the impact of this political gain was substantially lessened over the past 24 hours as a result of efforts to depict the whole situation as an internecine electoral struggle involving the Murr family that would not have any direct repercussion on Lahoud’s mandate. Moreover, the authorities’ final stand on the issue went some way in recuperating the state’s credibility, which was shaken over the past two days.
The by-election controversy also spurred something of a reunion for the opposition, which was deeply divided during the campaign. This re-gathering was confirmed by the meeting at the National Liberal Party headquarters on Monday of all opposition leaders, including Gebran Tueni, who had been at odds with some members of the Qornet Shehwan Gathering over the Metn by-election, and Ghassan Mokheiber, the other opposition candidate.
At the same time, the electoral outcome reflected divisions between top leaders, especially the gap between the president and the prime minister. This division surfaced even prior to election day, with the interior minister and Justice Minister Salim Jisr debating voting secrecy.
Another possible outcome of the election results may be a new electoral law. The small electoral unit has not served the interests of the presidential mandate. The division of Beirut into three electoral units facilitated the overwhelming triumph of Hariri in 2000 and also allowed opposition leaders to score overwhelming victories in parliamentary elections, such as Pierre Gemayel in Metn in 2000.
Knowing this, the opposition might insist on small districts in any future debate on the electoral law ahead of the 2005 elections. But the authorities, on the other hand, are likely to argue that such small units have exacerbated confessional sensitivities and call for the governorates to become the new electoral unit.

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