The triangulations of Walid Jumblatt
By Michael Young
One of the striking images coming out of the visit to Mukhtara Tuesday by the Syrian
vice-president, Abdel-Halim Khaddam, was the warm kiss exchanged between Walid Jumblatt
and the Baath official, Assem Qanso. One might recall that Qanso threatened Jumblatt with
death last year when the Druze leader dared to criticize Syria.
Mukhtara was a romp through the past. Not only did it resurrect Khaddam’s local role
the Syrian vice-president is said to have recently “recovered the Lebanese
file” it was an occasion to evoke that other piece of ancient history: the May 17,
1984, Israeli-Lebanese withdrawal accord, whose ruin Jumblatt was instrumental in bringing
about.
One might linger on the report that Khaddam has again been given a say in Lebanese
affairs. There is no doubt his influence has expanded, hence Jumblatt’s invitation.
However, the Druze leader might have sensed something else: that Syrian President Bashar
Assad, in a bid to consolidate his position, is expanding his power base inside Syria, and
therefore, that now is a good time for Jumblatt to multiply his contacts in Damascus.
But Khaddam is not the only, let alone the most powerful, Syrian with a say here. Aside
from Bashar himself, that honor belongs to the man who accompanied the vice-president to
Mukhtara, Ghazi Kenaan, the head of Syria’s intelligence network in Lebanon. More
interesting was Jumblatt’s placing himself as a third angle in the Kenaan-Khaddam
relationship.
Observing Jumblatt in the past months, a word comes to mind that was used to describe the
strategy of another political acrobat, former US President Bill Clinton: triangulation. In
his dealings with Syria and with President Emile Lahoud, Premier Rafik Hariri and the
opposition, Jumblatt has patiently set himself up as the third angle in often contentious
bilateral relationships.One example is Jumblatt’s effort to play the role of mediator
between Lahoud and Hariri when the two quarreled over mobile telephone licenses.
Jumblatt’s message was that he no longer saw himself as Hariri’s unconditional
ally, which he buttressed by criticizing the government. In putting some distance between
himself and Hariri, Jumblatt also lubricated his overtures to Damascus.
Jumblatt has also triangulated his rapport with the regime and the Syrians. By leaning on
Syria, he has bought breathing space vis-a-vis Lahoud. This allowed Jumblatt to imply that
the intelligence services were behind the abduction of the Lebanese Forces representative,
Ramzi Irani. Conversely, by dealing with Lahoud, Jumblatt has earned some peace of mind in
Damascus.
A third, still-virtual relationship into which Jumblatt has inserted himself is between
the regime and the opposition. Little of what Jumblatt has said or done in the past weeks
is at odds with the Qornet Shehwan grouping. This could be useful for the opposition if it
begins a dialogue with Lahoud and Syria. Nor is this the first time Jumblatt has
positioned himself to speak to the Syrians on the opposition’s behalf.
Jumblatt’s paramount aim remains political survival and relevancy.
Few things symbolized this better than the photograph he asked Khaddam to sign in
Mukhtara. The photograph was of Jumblatt and his son Timur, both wearing keffiyehs. The
message was not subtle, but it was effective: Different generations of Jumblatts, by
remaining steadfast Arab nationalists, hoped to benefit from their alliance with Syria.
Khaddam knows Jumblatt too well to take his declarations of firmness seriously. Still, he
must have appreciated the Druze leader’s warning that a new May 17 accord was in the
works. Jumblatt was referring to the Saudi initiative, which the Syrians regard dubiously.
Like most other local grandees, Jumblatt concluded that it was best after Sept. 11 to be
on Syria’s side when it felt vulnerable regionally and internationally.
The Mukhtara conclave showed something else, namely that Jumblatt still has chips he can
call the Syrians on. That is essential because, as Elie Hobeika’s assassination
proved, some people have long memories, particularly when remembering the war. Almost
alone among former militia leaders, Jumblatt has sought to guarantee his postwar
survivability by neutralizing and even coopting his erstwhile foes.
How will Jumblatt fare? He has lasted a long time, and that photo he asked Khaddam to
autograph shows he is in for the long haul. Triangulation just might be his recipe for
longevity. Michael Young, a Reason magazine
contributing editor, writes a weekly commentary for THE DAILY STAR
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