Punishment in Metn?
By Michael Young
A maxim emerging from the campaign for the Metn by-election is that one collaborates with
the former president, Amin Gemayel, at his own peril.
It was Gemayel who thought of backing Gabriel Murr in order to throw a grenade into the
Murr household, and it was he who simultaneously kept his lines open to Michel Murr.
Gemayel’s ploy was typical: He provoked mayhem, transacted with all, and now intends
to emerge from the messy procedure looking like the indispensable interlocutor.
And messy it certainly is, with Gebran Tueni’s bold effort on Friday to cut the
Gordian Knot by posing as a compromise candidate. Tueni irritated almost everyone,
particularly the man he had backed, Ghassan Mokheiber, and his ambush (whose impact could
not yet be gauged at press time) guaranteed, at least, stormy sessions ahead in Qornet
Shehwan.
One casualty of these maneuvers may be Nassib Lahoud. The esteemed parliamentarian was
more than happy to support a plan that would annoy Michel Murr. However, several problems
emerged: Gemayel’s apparent dealings with the enemy, but also Lahoud’s
marginalization in the campaign as the former president took center stage at his expense.
Lahoud also paid a price with respect to the timing of Gabriel Murr’s candidacy.
Coming soon after Albert Mokheiber’s death, it was designed to pre-empt the candidacy
of a Mokheiber while the family was politically neutralized due to their mourning. This
looked bad but also prevented a deal with the Mokheibers that might have averted a split
in the opposition.
Lahoud allowed his reputation to be tainted by the unbecoming parochialism of the Metn
poll. While he was entitled to his calculations, he fairly or unfairly came across as
someone willing to subordinate the unity of the opposition to his personal interests. Such
a verdict would hardly perturb the mendacious Gemayel, but Lahoud has integrity to
preserve.
The irony is that Lahoud was from the start disinclined to engage in a bruising electoral
battle, as was, for that matter, Michel Murr. The Metn by-election was always going to
demand more effort from local grandees than its importance actually merits. And when the
dust settles, Lahoud might have to welcome Myrna rather than Gabriel Murr to Parliament.
Assuming the absence of a compromise candidate, Michel Murr can now marshal Metn’s
various electoral blocs for his daughter. Myrna Murr’s candidacy again confirms Metn
politics as a chronicle of family plots, but it will mainly undercut the Gemayel-Lahoud
strategy. However, Gemayel prepared for that eventuality long ago. Last week he sounded
downright affectionate when discussing Myrna Murr.
The loser in a Murr-Murr contest may be Ghassan Mokheiber. Those around Lahoud have
accused Mokheiber of obstinacy, arguing that he, not Lahoud, has divided the opposition by
refusing to bow out in favor of a single opposition candidate. That may be true. However,
Mokheiber has his own political ambitions and withdrawal could be fatal, particularly as
he fought hard to become his family’s candidate.
It may be unwise to write off Mokheiber just yet. One possible by-product of
Gemayel’s double-dealing may be a breakdown in the Gemayel-Lahoud consensus behind
Gabriel Murr. In that case, Lahoud might change tack and instruct his voters to vote
Mokheiber, or allow them to choose their preferred candidate. If Gabriel Murr reads this
as a sign that his number is up, we may yet see a Mokheiber-Myrna Murr battle.
One of the more interesting sideshows in the ongoing performance is the role of Carlos
Edde and the National Bloc. Edde is Mokheiber’s most prominent supporter, a legacy of
the close relations between Albert Mokheiber and Raymond Edde. But the National Bloc
leader is also personally comfortable with Mokheiber, whose profile matches that of the
type of candidate he wishes to sponsor.
Though some in the National Bloc oppose a clash with Gabriel Murr, a majority in the
leadership endorses supporting Mokheiber. If Mokheiber wins, Edde wins too. But if he
loses, Edde can say he was true to his uncle and bet on someone decent. Moreover, a
campaign, successful or not, allows Edde to return the National Bloc to the public eye,
oil its diminished electoral joints and ascertain who in the party is with or against him.
At the end of the day if Myrna Murr wins it will be the Qornet Shehwan grouping that will
pick up the broken pieces. Though the grouping is not a political party, nor pretends to
be one, it will be seen as having failed its first electoral test because several of its
leading lights split the opposition vote.
There is still time for the opposition to regroup. Ironically, Mokheiber and Lahoud are
natural allies in any such process. Gemayel, in contrast, would happily cut a deal with
Michel Murr if it meant consolidating his power base in Metn, particularly after the
Phalange Party was taken away from him.
All politics are local, goes the dictum. That is usually true. However, if the opposition
does not salvage its performance in Metn, then its national credibility will suffer most.
Michael Young, a Reason magazine contributing editor, writes a weekly commentary for
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