Questions are being raised as to the possibility of yet another government reshuffle prior to the end of President Emile Lahoud’s term next year, in order to avoid potential deadlock while the presidential election is under way.
The difficulties already faced by the new government, formed in a Cabinet reshuffle last month, have caused speculation as to whether an impasse will prevail and, in turn, lead to another change.
Although one senior political source called the idea of such a sudden change “pure fiction,” sources close to the center of power said they did not expect the government to see out September.
Meanwhile, Speaker Nabih Berri’s refusal to resume his role as mediator between the president and premier has rendered an already difficult situation virtually impossible. Therefore, for any new government to be operational, substantial changes would likely need to take place ­ moves which the political atmosphere, however, may not currently favor.
While a replacement for Prime Minister Rafik Hariri appears unlikely, parliamentary sources said a new government, which would include the main figures, might be able to secure the necessary political balance in the Cabinet and thus provide an acceptable solution until the end of Lahoud’s mandate.
The increasing conflict between Lahoud and Hariri is expected by many to lead to a fierce battle for the presidency, even before the November 2004 vote. In such a context, it would not be surprising to see Lahoud make a final attempt to change the government and replace Hariri, who would undoubtedly oppose any renewal or extension of Lahoud’s term.
The president has taken action before in this regard, having tried at the time of the current government’s formation to convince Damascus ­ the main arbiter of such issues ­ that Tripoli MP and former Premier Omar Karami was an acceptable replacement for Hariri.
As for the premier, his attitude over the preceding period has been reflected his political intentions ­ recently showing a growing disinterest in political life, choosing to be more reactive than pro-active, and focusing more on surviving the next 18 months.
Such behavior has helped highlight the main constants in the premier’s policy, with Hariri appearing determined to remain functional in his capacity as premier, at least until the mandate ends, whatever the price.
There is also no doubt Hariri will do whatever possible to reverse the current situation at the first chance, which so far seems to be the presidential elections.
Next year’s vote, however, is of concern to all politicians, and divisions among political positions have emerged between those who favor extending Lahoud’s term and those who oppose it.
Hizbullah secretary-general Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah’s comments on Liberation Day last week were seen as an indication that the resistance would support an extension, or even a renewal, of Lahoud’s term. In his speech, Nasrallah urged politicians to postpone all elections ­ presidential, parliamentary or municipal ­ saying regional circumstances have made it a poor time to pick national leaders.
The comments were strongly criticized, despite assertions that they were misinterpreted and that the Hizbullah leader was actually requesting only a postponement of discussions about the forthcoming elections, rather than of the elections themselves.
Deputy Speaker Elie Ferzli’s comments regarding the extension of Lahoud’s term placed the deputy speaker in the opposite camp. In an interview with a Kuwaiti daily Thursday, Ferzli was harsh in his criticism, describing any postponement as “the death of the political system and an assassination
of Lebanon.”
As Ferzli and Hariri have close ties, the comments were perceived in some circles as reflecting the premier’s opinion, while other politicians stressed that the deputy speaker was only speaking for himself.